* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * NINETEEN 10/02/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 33 33 32 31 29 26 23 19 16 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 33 33 32 31 29 26 23 19 16 SHEAR (KTS) 21 24 25 26 28 28 38 38 42 43 43 38 35 SHEAR DIR 283 279 269 263 264 251 259 252 256 245 258 255 264 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 127 125 123 122 123 123 123 122 121 120 118 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.6 -54.9 -55.1 -55.6 -55.8 -56.1 -56.2 -56.4 -56.8 -56.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 8 5 4 4 500-300 MB RH 48 47 44 46 48 45 43 42 42 41 31 26 23 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 6 3 0 1 -1 9 -4 9 -4 4 -9 -11 850 MB VORT 65 56 55 50 30 0 -4 -7 -26 -41 -73 -95 -93 LAND (KM) 1803 1850 1899 1953 1987 2014 2033 2049 2039 2039 2041 1978 1867 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.1 18.9 20.8 22.9 24.4 25.4 26.6 28.2 29.1 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 34.3 34.7 35.1 35.5 35.9 36.4 36.7 36.8 36.6 36.4 36.0 35.0 33.5 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 683 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 36 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. -26. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NINETEEN 10/02/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.44 SST (C) : Value: 26.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.41 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 97.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.64 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.42 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)