* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * STAN 10/02/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 52 58 63 73 83 91 97 101 103 104 103 V (KT) LAND 40 34 31 29 35 46 55 63 69 50 34 29 27 SHEAR (KTS) 8 6 3 4 4 6 8 10 12 9 6 9 7 SHEAR DIR 285 305 299 265 316 356 16 37 4 21 360 25 46 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.9 30.1 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 164 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 10 9 10 10 12 11 12 10 9 8 500-300 MB RH 64 67 68 70 68 62 63 63 68 67 69 65 67 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -2 -3 -4 -6 0 -1 0 850 MB VORT 87 92 100 95 97 84 90 90 94 91 116 99 78 LAND (KM) 24 -78 -140 -41 62 243 244 128 51 -68 -244 -224 -152 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.3 20.6 21.0 21.0 20.7 20.3 20.1 20.0 19.6 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 87.2 88.2 89.1 90.1 91.0 92.7 94.5 95.6 96.2 97.4 99.3 100.7 101.3 HEAT CONTENT 102 9999 9999 9999 37 57 59 58 63 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 459 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 55 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 20. 22. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 34. 44. 52. 58. 63. 65. 65. 64. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 12. 18. 23. 33. 43. 51. 57. 61. 63. 64. 63. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) STAN 10/02/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.94 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 123.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.88 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.78 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.52 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.38 Scaled RI index= 5.23 Prob of RI= 44.6% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)