* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * OTIS 10/02/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 63 59 56 49 42 36 28 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 66 63 59 56 49 35 33 24 25 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 10 11 13 16 23 32 38 40 44 36 40 SHEAR DIR 233 236 226 203 205 208 223 224 234 242 254 273 276 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.7 27.0 28.0 29.6 30.0 29.2 26.2 21.2 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 141 137 133 137 147 164 165 160 128 76 64 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -53.1 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 6 6 3 3 0 1 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 27 27 28 30 27 24 19 12 9 11 17 20 19 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 3 3 3 4 1 0 7 11 7 6 0 0 850 MB VORT 37 31 36 39 27 10 46 46 67 26 -1 -21 2 LAND (KM) 206 174 138 88 23 2 -21 49 0 -28 -134 -295 -495 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.7 23.2 24.0 24.7 26.4 27.9 29.1 30.1 31.1 32.3 33.6 35.2 LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.0 112.0 112.3 112.5 112.7 112.9 112.8 112.9 112.7 112.7 111.9 110.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 345/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 626 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -1 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -6. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -14. -22. -32. -39. -46. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -15. -22. -30. -38. -49. -64. -79. -93. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -7. -11. -14. -21. -28. -34. -42. -51. -64. -80. -95. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OTIS 10/02/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.41 SST (C) : Value: 27.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.18 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 69.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.33 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.12 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.50 Scaled RI index= 2.02 Prob of RI= 2.3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)