* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NINETEEN 10/02/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 24 23 24 23 21 22 21 17 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 24 24 23 24 23 21 22 21 17 SHEAR (KTS) 22 23 25 29 31 33 36 38 39 45 41 46 33 SHEAR DIR 287 274 265 265 264 250 255 249 253 251 254 267 282 SST (C) 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.1 26.1 25.9 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 124 123 123 124 124 123 122 120 120 118 115 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -55.6 -55.8 -56.4 -56.6 -56.8 -56.8 -56.9 -57.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 5 4 4 5 500-300 MB RH 46 44 44 44 41 38 41 42 41 36 32 28 26 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 -2 0 0 -3 -4 0 9 -9 -5 -6 4 0 850 MB VORT 56 61 66 48 29 12 8 -7 -9 -45 -68 -80 -64 LAND (KM) 1914 1970 2029 2051 2075 2082 2096 2065 2024 1973 1936 1791 1560 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.5 18.3 19.1 19.9 21.5 23.4 25.0 26.3 27.5 28.7 29.2 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 35.3 35.8 36.2 36.6 36.9 37.1 37.3 36.9 36.3 35.5 34.7 32.9 30.4 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 843 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 38 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -20. -23. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 13. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -6. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -3. -4. -8. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NINETEEN 10/02/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 26.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.41 SST (C) : Value: 26.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.38 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 100.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.67 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.47 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.56 Scaled RI index= 3.01 Prob of RI= 3.5% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)