* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * STAN 10/02/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 54 64 73 82 89 94 97 99 99 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 34 39 50 59 67 74 69 43 32 28 SHEAR (KTS) 9 5 4 4 4 5 11 8 14 9 9 6 7 SHEAR DIR 303 313 272 307 18 48 29 18 8 359 6 27 24 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 164 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -52.1 -51.5 -52.4 -51.7 -52.5 -51.7 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 9 7 11 8 12 9 12 9 10 6 500-300 MB RH 71 72 72 72 70 70 71 72 69 67 64 63 64 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -7 -3 -1 0 850 MB VORT 82 94 87 86 81 96 93 95 88 100 122 99 88 LAND (KM) -30 -128 -97 15 127 259 203 126 78 -1 -117 -212 -257 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.8 20.8 20.6 20.5 20.3 20.0 19.7 19.3 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 87.7 88.6 89.5 90.6 91.6 93.4 94.7 95.5 95.9 96.6 97.7 98.5 98.8 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 37 42 53 48 53 59 66 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 487 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 69 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 29. 38. 47. 54. 59. 62. 64. 64. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 19. 29. 38. 47. 54. 59. 62. 64. 64. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) STAN 10/02/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.93 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.93 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.81 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.60 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.48 Scaled RI index= 5.48 Prob of RI= 52.7% is 4.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)