* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * OTIS 10/02/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 43 39 36 31 27 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 48 43 39 36 29 30 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 12 15 14 21 25 31 38 41 39 36 38 SHEAR DIR 229 230 214 210 214 211 227 228 241 247 263 267 279 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.8 27.5 29.0 29.9 30.1 29.2 23.8 19.2 17.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 141 138 135 142 157 165 165 160 103 64 64 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.4 -53.0 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 6 5 5 3 4 0 2 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 30 30 32 30 27 28 21 11 8 14 20 21 25 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 3 3 4 3 -4 4 12 -3 6 14 -19 -13 850 MB VORT 24 25 38 25 10 24 51 60 58 31 -14 -12 -21 LAND (KM) 170 138 107 46 34 -54 26 20 -7 -28 -199 -415 -705 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.2 23.6 24.4 25.1 27.1 28.4 29.3 30.0 31.1 32.9 34.7 37.1 LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.0 112.0 112.3 112.5 112.7 112.7 112.6 112.8 112.7 112.6 111.7 110.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 616 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -22 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 9. 4. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -14. -22. -31. -38. -45. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -14. -12. -10. -9. -6. -4. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -18. -23. -27. -32. -39. -47. -60. -74. -86. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -12. -16. -19. -24. -28. -32. -38. -45. -57. -71. -85. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OTIS 10/02/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.25 SST (C) : Value: 27.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.18 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 84.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.48 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.05 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 17.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.68 Scaled RI index= 1.63 Prob of RI= 1.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)