* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * STAN 10/02/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 42 47 56 65 75 82 91 96 100 101 V (KT) LAND 35 32 37 40 45 54 63 63 43 32 28 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 6 7 7 3 5 9 8 7 9 8 9 5 11 SHEAR DIR 300 268 297 324 320 3 39 7 5 1 22 31 57 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 10 10 12 12 12 11 10 8 8 500-300 MB RH 68 71 70 67 64 64 67 68 67 65 67 65 62 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 -5 -2 0 -1 -3 850 MB VORT 94 97 96 87 93 96 89 98 88 115 95 79 77 LAND (KM) -103 -49 48 160 272 224 82 -4 -49 -150 -299 -187 -121 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.7 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.3 21.0 20.9 20.9 20.7 20.1 19.4 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 88.9 89.9 90.8 91.9 92.9 94.9 96.3 97.2 97.7 98.7 100.2 101.0 101.2 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 37 51 63 61 69 76 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 564 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 45 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 25. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 12. 21. 30. 40. 47. 56. 61. 65. 66. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 7. 12. 21. 30. 40. 47. 56. 61. 65. 66. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) STAN 10/02/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.92 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.85 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 129.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.93 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.76 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.28 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.63 Scaled RI index= 4.90 Prob of RI= 33.3% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)