* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * OTIS 10/02/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 38 33 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 38 33 29 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 11 13 13 14 18 25 32 39 39 41 37 41 40 SHEAR DIR 214 213 210 207 203 220 227 231 239 248 264 270 272 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.3 25.8 26.2 28.5 29.9 28.9 29.5 25.0 18.7 16.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 135 129 124 128 152 165 156 163 116 64 64 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -53.0 -53.7 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 5 6 4 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 26 29 28 23 21 19 13 9 9 14 15 16 27 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 1 0 1 3 2 6 5 0 8 -8 1 -1 850 MB VORT 36 44 28 13 12 37 48 67 38 19 -6 -1 24 LAND (KM) 192 148 87 50 92 -44 16 26 52 52 -144 -374 -696 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.4 24.0 24.6 25.2 27.1 28.9 29.7 29.5 30.5 32.8 34.8 38.0 LONG(DEG W) 112.2 112.3 112.4 112.8 113.1 113.2 113.2 113.0 113.3 113.5 113.9 113.2 112.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 335/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 642 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -1 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 14. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -15. -24. -32. -40. -48. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. -16. -14. -12. -10. -7. -5. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -13. -16. -22. -28. -33. -40. -48. -58. -71. -82. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -12. -16. -20. -26. -30. -35. -40. -46. -55. -69. -82. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OTIS 10/02/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.23 SST (C) : Value: 26.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 88.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.52 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 18.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.42 Scaled RI index= 1.17 Prob of RI= 1.3% is 0.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)