* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/02/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 35 40 46 50 53 55 56 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 35 40 46 32 29 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 25 26 24 23 22 22 20 16 18 16 17 16 18 SHEAR DIR 79 84 82 77 79 67 59 43 21 10 16 33 36 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 161 161 161 162 162 162 161 160 161 163 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 8 8 10 10 11 10 11 8 9 500-300 MB RH 68 73 78 76 75 82 77 80 75 72 69 72 71 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 1 1 5 8 0 0 1 -4 -8 -11 2 10 850 MB VORT 67 70 71 73 78 77 85 103 94 101 90 97 112 LAND (KM) 207 210 213 216 219 206 128 6 -126 -90 -69 -105 -173 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.2 14.9 16.0 17.2 17.9 17.6 16.7 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 93.5 93.8 94.0 94.2 94.4 94.8 95.0 95.2 95.4 95.4 94.7 93.4 91.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 616 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 30 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 18. 25. 30. 33. 35. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 27. 29. 30. 31. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/02/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 23.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.76 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 86.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.93 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.46 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.07 Scaled RI index= 3.85 Prob of RI= 24.7% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)