* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * STAN 10/03/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 37 41 50 60 70 77 85 91 95 97 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 44 52 62 50 35 29 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 8 8 3 3 2 8 7 6 4 7 8 6 4 SHEAR DIR 260 287 292 311 338 49 57 43 71 29 51 48 61 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.1 -51.8 -51.1 -51.9 -50.9 -52.0 -51.2 -52.2 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 12 9 13 9 12 8 10 6 6 500-300 MB RH 68 67 64 62 60 61 65 70 70 68 64 60 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 850 MB VORT 97 101 91 104 109 103 106 88 98 96 101 100 97 LAND (KM) -46 48 154 266 293 148 52 -48 -158 -244 -279 -276 -241 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 20.9 21.1 21.1 21.1 20.9 20.8 20.6 20.1 19.7 19.4 19.3 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 89.8 90.8 91.8 92.9 94.0 95.5 96.5 97.5 98.4 99.1 99.3 99.3 99.4 HEAT CONTENT 9999 37 49 59 58 59 70 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 637 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 50 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 11. 20. 30. 40. 47. 55. 61. 65. 67. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 7. 11. 20. 30. 40. 47. 55. 61. 65. 67. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) STAN 10/03/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.94 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.85 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 134.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.74 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.41 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 5.06 Prob of RI= 38.9% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)