* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * OTIS 10/03/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 30 26 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 35 30 26 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 14 11 13 16 20 20 29 33 32 33 35 40 42 SHEAR DIR 223 214 206 196 199 214 223 234 230 250 257 274 279 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.2 25.5 24.6 25.9 27.2 24.8 25.6 28.7 29.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 135 128 121 112 125 139 114 122 154 165 125 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 6 3 5 1 4 0 2 0 3 500-300 MB RH 26 24 23 19 21 13 11 9 11 13 14 14 15 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 1 3 7 5 3 1 0 7 6 0 -2 1 850 MB VORT 42 21 11 8 16 32 41 57 54 25 14 -3 -7 LAND (KM) 160 112 56 55 114 2 -48 -18 -9 -22 45 -32 -181 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.3 26.8 28.1 28.6 28.4 28.6 29.5 30.5 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 112.3 112.4 112.4 112.9 113.3 113.7 113.5 113.4 113.9 113.8 113.4 112.6 111.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 345/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 612 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 3 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 8. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -5. -11. -18. -25. -31. -39. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. -6. -4. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -13. -21. -28. -35. -43. -51. -56. -62. -69. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -10. -14. -17. -24. -31. -38. -44. -51. -55. -61. -70. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OTIS 10/03/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.16 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.15 SST (C) : Value: 26.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 91.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.55 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 63.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 28.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.03 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.17 Scaled RI index= 1.06 Prob of RI= 1.2% is 0.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)