* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/03/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 35 40 46 49 52 53 56 57 58 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 35 40 46 49 35 29 28 27 30 SHEAR (KTS) 25 24 23 23 25 22 22 18 16 17 15 16 9 SHEAR DIR 79 75 75 76 77 65 56 37 5 348 3 4 25 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 161 161 161 161 162 162 161 162 163 162 163 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -51.7 -52.6 -51.7 -52.4 -51.4 -52.8 -52.2 -52.8 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 9 7 9 8 10 9 10 9 11 500-300 MB RH 73 76 73 71 75 80 78 82 79 74 73 70 68 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 1 5 6 1 5 0 0 -1 0 11 10 -2 850 MB VORT 45 47 53 61 65 79 99 97 103 109 121 104 119 LAND (KM) 268 267 266 265 265 257 195 43 -151 -55 -92 -76 20 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.6 14.1 15.4 17.1 18.1 18.7 19.3 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.7 94.7 94.7 94.4 93.8 92.9 91.7 90.0 88.2 86.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 442 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 51 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 18. 25. 30. 33. 35. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 29. 30. 32. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 10. 15. 21. 24. 27. 28. 31. 32. 33. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/03/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.75 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 86.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.92 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.54 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.28 Scaled RI index= 4.12 Prob of RI= 29.7% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)