* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * STAN 10/03/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 47 56 66 76 83 89 93 95 94 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 47 56 66 45 33 29 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 6 3 3 1 6 9 8 8 8 10 8 10 8 SHEAR DIR 269 323 353 96 16 27 27 20 4 17 48 58 40 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 10 11 9 11 10 11 9 10 8 8 6 500-300 MB RH 67 68 67 69 70 69 70 69 71 63 64 61 63 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -5 0 -1 0 850 MB VORT 104 107 111 105 106 106 123 105 126 114 86 64 47 LAND (KM) 59 147 223 234 223 103 11 -45 -102 -155 -235 -227 -231 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.6 20.5 20.1 19.9 19.7 19.5 19.2 18.9 18.6 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 91.0 91.9 92.7 93.5 94.2 95.5 96.4 96.9 97.4 97.8 98.5 98.8 98.7 HEAT CONTENT 37 42 54 52 45 43 64 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 629 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 57 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 17. 18. 18. 18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 16. 26. 36. 46. 53. 60. 64. 66. 66. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 17. 26. 36. 46. 53. 59. 63. 65. 64. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) STAN 10/03/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.96 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 134.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.83 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.22 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.65 Scaled RI index= 5.18 Prob of RI= 42.9% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)