* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * OTIS 10/03/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 29 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 29 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 15 11 13 17 21 24 31 32 37 37 41 44 47 SHEAR DIR 226 220 203 196 208 212 225 229 239 253 264 270 268 SST (C) 26.7 26.2 25.8 25.5 25.2 24.6 23.9 24.4 26.2 29.3 29.9 29.2 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 128 124 121 118 112 104 110 128 161 165 160 121 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 6 4 4 1 2 0 1 0 2 0 500-300 MB RH 22 20 18 21 16 12 9 8 11 13 12 12 20 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 2 6 5 5 1 4 1 5 1 0 5 16 850 MB VORT 21 11 8 25 26 19 53 48 42 5 0 -4 29 LAND (KM) 125 91 83 104 129 38 -40 -9 -36 49 -21 -10 -154 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.2 24.6 25.1 25.5 26.4 27.4 28.2 28.7 29.6 30.3 31.2 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.6 112.9 113.1 113.3 113.5 113.7 113.9 113.9 113.7 113.2 112.7 113.0 112.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 595 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 2 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -12. -20. -27. -35. -44. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -8. -14. -22. -32. -41. -47. -53. -61. -71. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -23. -33. -41. -46. -52. -60. -71. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OTIS 10/03/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.10 SST (C) : Value: 25.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 89.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 63.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.18 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.22 Scaled RI index= 1.51 Prob of RI= 1.7% is 0.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)