* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/03/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 40 45 48 51 52 54 55 56 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 40 45 43 33 29 27 27 30 SHEAR (KTS) 24 25 27 28 25 22 23 20 16 17 15 17 13 SHEAR DIR 83 80 81 83 79 66 59 37 357 5 20 32 53 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 161 161 162 162 162 161 161 162 165 164 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.2 -51.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 9 8 9 8 10 9 10 9 9 9 500-300 MB RH 73 72 74 78 82 77 81 81 75 70 71 66 59 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 3 2 3 -1 3 0 -6 0 0 3 3 0 850 MB VORT 64 66 63 65 78 98 99 91 100 79 86 93 96 LAND (KM) 277 252 228 227 226 196 123 -3 -111 -114 -200 -100 31 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.7 14.0 14.8 16.1 17.2 17.4 16.8 16.7 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 95.2 95.5 95.7 95.8 95.8 95.7 95.4 94.8 94.1 93.1 91.5 89.6 87.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 522 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 39 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 18. 25. 30. 33. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 20. 23. 26. 27. 29. 30. 31. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/03/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 25.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.76 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 86.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.91 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.81 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.25 Scaled RI index= 4.37 Prob of RI= 34.7% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)