* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * STAN 10/03/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 57 62 73 83 92 98 101 101 99 96 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 57 62 73 66 43 32 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 6 3 3 8 8 7 6 6 9 9 8 4 6 SHEAR DIR 306 319 344 5 15 26 25 350 359 20 357 329 323 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -51.7 -50.8 -51.9 -51.2 -52.2 -51.2 -52.5 -52.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 11 12 10 8 12 10 12 9 9 6 7 4 500-300 MB RH 68 68 69 70 72 69 69 67 60 59 52 48 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -2 0 -4 0 -1 -3 0 850 MB VORT 108 112 103 105 108 124 116 123 125 94 33 27 -8 LAND (KM) 149 195 208 206 182 83 -18 -83 -119 -157 -124 -104 -107 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.4 20.3 20.3 20.2 19.9 19.7 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.1 19.3 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 91.9 92.7 93.5 94.0 94.5 95.6 96.6 97.2 97.4 97.7 97.4 97.3 97.4 HEAT CONTENT 42 54 51 43 37 44 64 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 613 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 62 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 17. 17. 15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 34. 43. 53. 59. 62. 62. 61. 57. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 17. 22. 33. 43. 52. 58. 61. 61. 59. 56. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) STAN 10/03/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.92 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.85 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 125.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.90 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.86 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.43 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.43 Scaled RI index= 5.30 Prob of RI= 46.7% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)