* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/03/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 26 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 26 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 12 18 27 34 38 43 51 56 60 47 45 36 SHEAR DIR 272 260 254 256 259 252 245 239 243 254 267 277 290 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 137 134 132 128 124 122 119 117 117 119 124 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -55.2 -55.5 -56.0 -56.1 -55.2 -54.7 -54.6 -54.3 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 7 7 7 8 500-300 MB RH 41 39 38 37 39 46 48 51 45 38 29 28 22 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 2 1 0 -2 13 7 5 -6 -14 1 3 -5 850 MB VORT -3 -18 -12 -27 -47 -61 -91 -94 -99 -79 -63 -40 -5 LAND (KM) 1822 1885 1951 2011 2073 2183 2086 1966 1830 1708 1655 1637 1691 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.3 19.0 20.8 22.3 23.2 23.4 22.9 21.7 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 38.0 38.0 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.8 37.1 36.0 34.7 33.5 33.0 32.8 33.2 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 9 8 8 6 6 3 2 0 0 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 631 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -4 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -13. -20. -28. -34. -41. -46. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -19. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -4. -10. -17. -26. -34. -41. -44. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -10. -18. -27. -35. -42. -46. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/03/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.56 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.54 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 112.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.78 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.56 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.30 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.34 Scaled RI index= 3.79 Prob of RI= 9.2% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)