* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/03/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 42 50 59 68 73 77 79 78 73 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 42 50 59 38 36 34 30 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 28 27 25 24 20 16 13 17 9 24 33 52 61 SHEAR DIR 302 302 301 295 291 267 263 239 243 230 231 220 220 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.4 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 162 162 162 160 155 149 149 148 142 134 110 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 -54.0 -54.3 -53.5 -54.1 -53.2 -53.7 -52.9 -52.9 -51.9 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 65 66 68 71 77 73 73 68 66 58 63 51 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) -9 -3 -1 1 0 4 2 11 0 7 5 -10 -8 850 MB VORT 46 69 85 86 88 90 103 109 110 124 162 158 189 LAND (KM) 298 259 234 211 178 195 1 -59 7 -7 -125 -62 -111 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.1 23.1 23.3 23.4 24.2 25.5 27.0 28.5 29.6 30.9 33.0 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 73.5 74.4 75.3 76.2 77.1 78.7 80.3 81.6 82.7 83.3 83.1 80.8 77.1 HEAT CONTENT 50 54 74 85 98 51 81 9999 23 22 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 650 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 34 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 16. 19. 21. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 29. 37. 43. 49. 51. 49. 44. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 12. 20. 29. 38. 43. 47. 49. 48. 43. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/03/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 25.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.44 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 131.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.95 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.34 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.28 Scaled RI index= 4.16 Prob of RI= 13.7% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)