* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * OTIS 10/03/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 16 17 19 21 22 28 32 35 33 32 33 37 46 SHEAR DIR 209 208 198 202 210 218 226 222 239 235 254 258 265 SST (C) 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.6 25.0 23.6 22.8 21.7 21.4 21.3 21.2 20.8 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 127 122 116 101 93 81 78 77 76 72 69 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 4 3 4 0 3 0 1 0 2 0 500-300 MB RH 20 18 18 16 12 10 9 10 10 10 11 10 18 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 9 7 4 3 4 2 -5 9 -2 0 -5 6 850 MB VORT 16 10 24 30 32 36 55 52 35 36 22 42 29 LAND (KM) 55 72 106 105 63 18 14 22 100 153 183 170 143 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.0 25.3 25.8 26.2 27.0 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.0 113.2 113.5 113.8 114.3 114.6 115.2 116.0 116.5 116.9 117.1 117.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 587 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 9 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -6. -13. -20. -26. -32. -40. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -21. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -10. -18. -29. -41. -54. -63. -72. -79. -87. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -7. -9. -16. -26. -38. -50. -59. -67. -75. -85. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OTIS 10/03/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 95.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.59 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 60.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.57 Scaled RI index= 1.47 Prob of RI= 1.7% is 0.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)