* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/03/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 45 50 53 55 57 59 59 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 39 32 28 27 27 27 30 SHEAR (KTS) 23 25 23 23 23 18 15 11 15 11 15 11 6 SHEAR DIR 77 76 75 67 63 54 41 356 6 18 41 68 72 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 157 157 158 160 161 161 163 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.2 -52.3 -51.4 -52.7 -51.7 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 9 8 7 9 8 10 8 9 7 9 8 500-300 MB RH 75 75 77 82 82 82 83 77 72 66 68 61 56 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 4 3 2 0 0 -7 -5 4 8 0 0 850 MB VORT 91 81 76 81 93 110 107 104 92 87 83 84 60 LAND (KM) 209 194 174 168 163 118 -3 -118 -77 -133 -179 -38 53 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.6 15.0 16.1 17.1 17.6 17.4 16.9 16.8 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 94.6 94.8 94.9 94.9 94.9 94.9 94.8 94.4 93.7 92.3 90.4 88.7 87.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 623 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 52 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 17. 23. 27. 29. 31. 33. 34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 34. 34. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/03/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 23.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.66 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 132.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.97 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 86.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.95 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.57 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.08 Scaled RI index= 3.86 Prob of RI= 24.9% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)