* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * STAN 10/03/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 63 68 74 84 92 99 102 104 103 101 98 V (KT) LAND 50 57 63 68 74 84 92 77 48 34 29 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 10 7 9 9 10 10 10 11 14 12 10 4 4 SHEAR DIR 305 328 356 18 23 357 24 18 24 39 79 102 73 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 164 164 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 10 9 11 10 11 9 10 9 9 7 8 500-300 MB RH 68 72 74 75 73 73 71 70 65 63 57 59 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -2 -3 -1 0 -5 -3 -6 0 4 0 0 850 MB VORT 120 123 114 110 117 118 112 125 114 108 85 63 32 LAND (KM) 157 152 152 156 142 81 30 -15 -47 -77 -56 -45 -45 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.0 19.8 19.8 19.7 19.4 19.1 18.8 18.7 18.5 18.7 18.9 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 92.1 92.8 93.4 93.8 94.2 95.0 95.6 96.0 96.3 96.5 96.4 96.4 96.4 HEAT CONTENT 48 60 56 49 41 36 48 53 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 527 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 60 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 18. 18. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 18. 19. 19. 18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 19. 25. 35. 43. 50. 54. 56. 55. 52. 49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 13. 18. 24. 34. 42. 49. 52. 54. 53. 51. 48. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) STAN 10/03/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.83 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.85 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 114.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.80 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.88 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.70 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.43 Scaled RI index= 5.08 Prob of RI= 39.6% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)