* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/03/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 43 51 60 67 73 77 80 78 71 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 43 51 55 59 65 69 57 39 31 SHEAR (KTS) 29 28 24 19 13 15 9 13 12 24 32 38 42 SHEAR DIR 296 299 300 299 285 278 258 274 243 253 230 234 230 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 162 157 151 148 148 148 146 142 135 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -54.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 11 10 10 8 8 3 2 0 0 500-300 MB RH 64 63 69 72 68 70 68 66 61 55 51 45 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) -11 -13 0 0 4 -2 5 9 -11 -2 -10 4 10 850 MB VORT 64 79 84 96 102 94 113 99 116 101 122 73 88 LAND (KM) 260 224 173 148 147 104 8 7 100 58 -25 -96 -21 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.5 23.6 24.4 25.6 27.1 28.4 29.3 30.0 30.9 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 75.1 76.1 77.0 77.8 78.6 80.1 81.4 82.6 83.7 84.6 85.0 83.9 80.7 HEAT CONTENT 70 75 84 76 71 73 35 10 20 21 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 702 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 56 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 22. 31. 39. 45. 49. 51. 49. 43. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 13. 21. 30. 37. 43. 47. 50. 48. 41. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/03/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.50 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 132.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.96 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 4.25 Prob of RI= 14.7% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)