* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * OTIS 10/03/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 22 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 20 17 20 22 28 31 31 38 34 36 34 41 49 SHEAR DIR 219 212 207 211 215 226 225 229 240 249 261 253 252 SST (C) 26.1 25.6 24.9 24.1 23.3 22.2 21.5 21.3 21.3 21.1 20.9 20.4 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 122 115 106 98 87 79 77 77 75 73 68 64 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -50.9 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 4 3 4 1 2 1 1 0 2 1 2 500-300 MB RH 17 18 13 10 8 7 7 8 9 12 11 12 16 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 3 5 6 6 1 1 2 0 0 -2 0 15 850 MB VORT 11 18 26 38 40 52 67 70 62 29 23 35 38 LAND (KM) 106 100 53 41 29 31 50 107 135 144 132 169 95 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.8 26.3 26.7 27.0 27.4 27.9 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.7 29.3 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 113.2 113.5 113.8 114.2 114.5 114.9 115.5 116.0 116.3 116.4 116.5 117.4 117.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 618 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 26 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -6. -14. -22. -28. -35. -44. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -7. -5. -4. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -11. -21. -32. -45. -57. -66. -74. -80. -89. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. 1. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -7. -9. -17. -28. -40. -51. -59. -66. -74. -86. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OTIS 10/03/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 24.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 88.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.52 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 53.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 9.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.86 Scaled RI index= 1.69 Prob of RI= 1.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)