* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/03/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 40 47 54 58 61 64 65 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 28 27 33 37 40 31 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 23 22 21 19 17 13 13 11 12 12 12 10 14 SHEAR DIR 61 59 59 56 56 37 24 4 8 33 64 70 78 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 160 160 160 161 160 161 161 161 163 165 165 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 10 9 11 9 10 8 9 7 9 500-300 MB RH 76 80 84 85 82 83 76 69 61 63 65 72 68 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 7 4 1 -3 0 -4 -5 -6 2 4 0 -6 850 MB VORT 89 90 92 101 116 118 110 117 105 123 109 102 73 LAND (KM) 125 114 95 55 12 -105 -30 36 52 0 -133 -180 -87 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.5 15.9 17.0 18.2 19.0 19.1 18.3 17.4 17.5 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 94.0 94.2 94.3 94.3 94.3 94.6 94.9 95.1 94.9 93.8 91.9 89.9 89.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 20/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 744 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 61 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 18. 24. 30. 33. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 21. 27. 32. 35. 37. 38. 38. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 15. 22. 29. 33. 36. 39. 40. 39. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/03/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.72 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 134.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 86.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.95 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.43 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.05 Scaled RI index= 3.77 Prob of RI= 23.3% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)