* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * STAN 10/04/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 68 74 80 90 99 105 109 111 110 107 104 V (KT) LAND 55 62 68 74 80 90 85 53 36 30 28 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 8 10 8 10 6 9 9 2 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 302 336 356 5 346 6 320 356 25 9 62 152 122 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 164 162 162 162 164 164 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -50.9 -51.9 -50.9 -52.1 -51.2 -52.1 -51.6 -52.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 11 12 10 11 8 10 6 7 4 7 500-300 MB RH 68 73 76 73 75 73 70 66 62 55 53 54 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 0 1 1 0 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 117 118 110 116 128 118 130 123 107 74 49 12 1 LAND (KM) 174 164 154 125 94 55 -1 -55 -115 -160 -149 -138 -141 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 19.9 19.7 19.6 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.2 19.1 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 93.0 93.5 93.9 94.3 94.6 95.5 96.1 96.7 97.3 97.8 97.8 97.8 97.9 HEAT CONTENT 59 54 47 42 39 42 54 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 567 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 68 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 17. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 19. 25. 34. 43. 50. 54. 57. 57. 54. 50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 13. 19. 25. 35. 44. 50. 54. 56. 55. 52. 49. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) STAN 10/04/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.83 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 108.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.75 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 85.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.90 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.90 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.55 Scaled RI index= 5.37 Prob of RI= 49.1% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)