* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/04/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 52 59 67 72 75 77 76 69 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 50 58 65 71 74 47 46 39 SHEAR (KTS) 29 25 18 16 17 12 16 15 24 26 41 36 30 SHEAR DIR 294 296 294 281 272 271 255 274 235 230 221 221 223 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.1 28.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 159 152 148 148 149 148 143 143 122 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -52.7 -53.3 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -51.2 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 6 6 0 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 63 68 70 70 71 72 70 65 59 55 51 44 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) -13 -13 -5 7 8 8 12 0 7 -3 7 -7 -7 850 MB VORT 73 73 86 99 98 108 115 113 121 153 158 151 128 LAND (KM) 210 177 156 156 141 1 27 71 101 20 -128 150 368 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.5 23.6 23.9 24.2 25.3 26.6 28.0 29.0 29.7 30.7 32.1 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 76.3 77.2 78.1 78.9 79.7 81.2 82.4 83.5 84.2 84.6 82.8 78.3 72.0 HEAT CONTENT 78 85 70 69 75 49 9 24 23 22 9999 24 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 691 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 23. 31. 39. 44. 47. 48. 46. 42. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 29. 37. 42. 45. 47. 46. 39. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/04/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.53 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 131.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.95 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.68 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.75 Scaled RI index= 4.44 Prob of RI= 18.1% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)