* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/04/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 54 58 61 63 64 65 64 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 30 28 33 37 40 42 34 30 28 SHEAR (KTS) 21 21 17 17 13 13 11 13 8 7 7 6 9 SHEAR DIR 53 46 48 49 39 18 348 347 338 33 99 75 154 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 160 160 160 161 161 161 162 163 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -52.3 -51.5 -51.0 -52.0 -51.0 -52.2 -51.1 -52.5 -52.0 -53.1 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 10 9 10 8 10 7 9 7 9 500-300 MB RH 81 85 86 83 85 79 74 67 61 65 64 60 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 3 0 -1 2 6 0 -3 0 4 2 0 1 850 MB VORT 84 86 94 108 123 111 115 111 102 88 85 63 54 LAND (KM) 146 110 69 14 -40 -67 22 73 110 11 -22 -53 -19 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.4 17.6 18.7 19.2 19.3 18.7 18.4 18.5 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.4 94.5 94.5 94.5 94.6 94.7 94.6 93.9 92.5 91.2 90.7 90.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 669 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 95 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 18. 24. 30. 33. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 23. 28. 33. 35. 36. 37. 37. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 21. 29. 33. 36. 38. 39. 40. 39. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/04/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.72 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 133.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 87.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.98 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.45 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.50 Scaled RI index= 4.26 Prob of RI= 32.6% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)