* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * STAN 10/04/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 71 77 83 91 99 103 105 105 103 99 96 V (KT) LAND 60 66 71 77 83 57 40 32 29 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 12 8 9 11 10 13 13 11 9 8 11 SHEAR DIR 355 17 34 35 18 21 16 24 48 54 109 99 101 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 162 160 160 162 164 164 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.8 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.1 -51.6 -51.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 12 12 10 11 10 10 8 8 6 7 7 500-300 MB RH 72 75 76 77 77 73 73 70 70 60 64 60 60 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 1 1 0 0 -5 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 123 116 118 126 126 108 112 94 75 42 31 11 16 LAND (KM) 105 64 24 17 10 -37 -40 -59 -118 -179 -191 -194 -204 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.0 18.8 18.8 18.7 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 94.1 94.5 94.8 94.9 94.9 95.4 95.5 96.1 96.9 97.5 97.7 97.8 97.9 HEAT CONTENT 53 53 51 51 51 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 235/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ -5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 490 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 59 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 21. 30. 37. 42. 45. 46. 44. 41. 37. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 11. 17. 23. 31. 39. 43. 45. 45. 43. 39. 36. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) STAN 10/04/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.80 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 102.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.69 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 86.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.94 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.92 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.69 Scaled RI index= 5.74 Prob of RI= 61.7% is 5.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)