* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/04/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 44 52 59 67 71 74 75 73 63 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 44 52 59 67 71 74 49 49 39 SHEAR (KTS) 28 19 17 19 20 11 16 15 25 31 37 37 37 SHEAR DIR 293 291 275 269 283 273 272 243 243 218 231 225 235 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 160 157 154 148 148 148 148 148 145 148 138 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 9 7 7 2 1 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 66 68 68 69 69 68 65 60 51 46 35 37 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) -13 3 5 6 0 3 10 10 13 -6 -3 4 0 850 MB VORT 79 81 94 109 104 118 107 132 135 179 125 91 22 LAND (KM) 161 161 138 115 48 49 88 149 85 49 -75 196 300 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 23.7 23.9 24.3 24.7 26.0 27.3 28.5 29.0 29.5 30.0 31.2 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 77.6 78.5 79.3 80.1 80.9 82.3 83.5 84.4 84.9 84.4 82.1 79.0 75.7 HEAT CONTENT 80 61 78 74 70 19 23 21 29 18 9999 24 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 706 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 18. 21. 22. 21. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 23. 31. 39. 43. 46. 46. 43. 36. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 10. 14. 22. 29. 37. 41. 44. 45. 43. 33. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/04/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.55 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.79 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 129.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.93 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.70 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 7.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 4.67 Prob of RI= 24.3% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)