* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * STAN 10/04/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 77 84 91 96 104 109 112 113 112 109 105 101 V (KT) LAND 70 61 49 40 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 10 8 10 12 12 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 22 35 49 64 65 67 59 73 87 88 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 160 162 162 164 164 165 165 165 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -50.9 -50.8 -51.5 -51.6 -50.5 -51.9 -51.0 -52.6 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 10 9 10 8 8 6 7 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 73 72 77 76 77 73 69 65 68 67 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -5 0 1 0 -4 -2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 113 120 130 127 118 128 113 98 70 46 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 24 -23 -71 -82 -100 -172 -179 -204 -195 -159 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.5 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.2 18.1 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.3 95.8 96.2 96.5 97.3 97.5 97.9 98.6 99.2 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 235/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 451 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 53 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 17. 18. 19. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 17. 21. 29. 34. 39. 42. 42. 40. 37. 33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 14. 21. 26. 34. 39. 42. 43. 42. 39. 35. 31. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) STAN 10/04/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.81 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 91.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.59 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 86.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.95 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 4.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 5.76 Prob of RI= 62.1% is 5.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)