* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/04/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 44 52 59 65 68 70 69 66 58 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 34 42 50 57 63 66 68 67 64 44 SHEAR (KTS) 21 19 23 24 16 22 17 29 30 37 29 34 26 SHEAR DIR 290 273 272 275 277 255 274 241 232 220 224 223 240 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 157 152 149 146 146 146 146 146 146 148 145 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -52.5 -52.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 9 9 9 6 4 0 0 0 2 0 500-300 MB RH 68 68 70 71 72 67 64 56 47 37 29 31 31 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 6 9 4 12 26 -1 2 0 -2 -6 0 -2 850 MB VORT 77 86 106 107 112 131 122 140 170 160 154 115 99 LAND (KM) 202 172 73 -7 36 132 160 170 102 139 275 158 -36 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.4 24.7 25.3 25.9 27.1 28.3 28.9 28.8 28.3 27.6 28.4 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 78.0 79.1 80.1 81.1 82.1 83.9 85.8 87.2 88.3 88.2 86.9 84.5 81.7 HEAT CONTENT 67 60 71 51 22 22 24 31 32 27 35 22 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 607 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 79 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 20. 23. 24. 24. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 24. 31. 37. 40. 42. 40. 37. 30. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 10. 14. 22. 29. 35. 38. 40. 39. 36. 28. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/04/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.55 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.76 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 126.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.91 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.71 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.60 Scaled RI index= 4.23 Prob of RI= 14.6% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)