* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * STAN 10/04/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 57 60 63 68 73 77 82 86 88 88 87 V (KT) LAND 55 43 36 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 17 15 14 13 12 16 18 13 11 9 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 24 37 51 56 45 54 48 65 89 91 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 162 162 164 164 164 165 165 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.8 -51.7 -52.0 -51.0 -51.7 -51.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 8 9 8 9 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 75 78 80 77 75 72 70 72 67 70 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 0 2 1 0 -3 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 126 129 122 109 112 92 88 80 39 18 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -90 -126 -162 -166 -160 -129 -149 -156 -138 -125 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 17.7 17.4 17.3 17.2 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.2 17.2 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.4 95.7 96.0 96.2 96.4 96.9 97.0 97.2 97.6 97.9 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 225/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ -5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 441 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 92 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 20. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 8. 13. 18. 22. 27. 31. 33. 33. 32. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 5. 8. 13. 18. 22. 27. 31. 33. 33. 32. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) STAN 10/04/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 106.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.72 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 87.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.97 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.92 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.83 Scaled RI index= 5.31 Prob of RI= 47.1% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)