* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/04/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 44 52 60 65 69 70 69 64 54 V (KT) LAND 30 32 30 29 28 38 45 51 46 34 29 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 23 23 20 13 15 16 17 25 32 36 39 38 37 SHEAR DIR 277 260 270 271 254 270 253 238 218 225 222 234 232 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 154 151 148 148 146 146 145 143 138 137 135 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 70 72 69 72 65 64 55 52 47 33 31 29 25 MO FLX (M/S/D) 12 10 6 8 14 17 2 9 -9 3 0 4 3 850 MB VORT 83 103 95 103 112 106 122 108 142 136 105 34 52 LAND (KM) 179 70 -37 -52 -27 100 29 33 -4 -78 -96 -23 12 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.3 25.8 26.5 27.1 28.4 29.5 30.0 30.5 30.8 31.6 32.8 33.7 LONG(DEG W) 78.7 79.7 80.6 81.4 82.2 83.7 85.0 86.0 86.2 84.4 82.3 80.4 78.6 HEAT CONTENT 41 61 9999 9999 9999 21 19 19 20 9999 9999 9999 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 574 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 91 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 19. 19. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 24. 32. 37. 41. 42. 40. 34. 26. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 10. 14. 22. 30. 35. 39. 40. 39. 34. 24. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/04/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.59 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.73 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 123.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.88 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.74 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.49 Scaled RI index= 4.15 Prob of RI= 13.6% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)