* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/05/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 53 60 63 66 68 65 59 49 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 31 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 26 15 SHEAR (KTS) 23 24 20 19 23 19 25 31 49 45 46 39 43 SHEAR DIR 255 267 252 250 259 256 240 223 213 216 220 230 236 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.8 26.9 25.8 25.1 23.0 21.7 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 152 151 149 146 139 128 117 111 97 91 87 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.2 -50.7 -50.5 -51.1 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 70 71 69 69 68 62 57 60 50 36 30 30 23 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 19 12 13 20 6 10 16 13 0 7 11 1 850 MB VORT 93 71 79 86 82 89 110 152 169 196 141 126 68 LAND (KM) 167 77 2 -30 -58 -72 -130 -255 -278 -265 -54 120 128 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.7 27.3 28.0 28.7 30.0 31.2 32.4 34.0 36.0 38.1 39.7 40.4 LONG(DEG W) 78.5 79.4 80.2 80.9 81.5 82.8 83.8 84.4 82.9 79.8 76.0 72.6 70.7 HEAT CONTENT 58 51 48 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 335/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 458 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 84 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. 11. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 22. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 37. 30. 21. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 30. 33. 36. 38. 35. 29. 19. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/05/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.52 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.72 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 122.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.87 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.76 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.45 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.29 Scaled RI index= 4.32 Prob of RI= 15.7% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)