* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * STAN 10/05/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 29 31 34 40 49 58 66 74 80 85 86 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 16 17 15 10 12 12 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 37 53 63 47 47 58 81 80 41 18 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 164 164 164 162 162 164 164 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.8 -51.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 8 8 8 9 7 8 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 81 77 74 76 75 72 69 64 67 61 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 122 110 115 121 117 97 96 61 33 2 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -136 -124 -113 -119 -125 -136 -163 -129 -137 -97 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.0 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.7 18.1 18.4 19.1 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.1 97.2 97.2 97.2 97.1 97.1 96.8 96.8 97.1 97.1 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 240/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 448 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 112 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 22. 24. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -9. -6. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 1. 4. 10. 19. 28. 36. 44. 50. 55. 56. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -1. 1. 4. 10. 19. 28. 36. 44. 50. 55. 56. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) STAN 10/05/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.18 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.72 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 133.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 85.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.92 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.40 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.62 Scaled RI index= 4.65 Prob of RI= 23.2% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)