* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TAMMY 10/05/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 49 56 60 63 65 64 59 51 38 V (KT) LAND 35 38 32 30 29 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 SHEAR (KTS) 34 19 19 27 23 20 27 41 43 47 46 51 45 SHEAR DIR 267 263 234 243 260 236 237 220 225 219 227 231 255 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.6 26.7 25.5 24.5 22.4 21.2 19.5 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 146 145 137 126 114 106 94 88 83 81 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -51.4 -50.6 -50.1 -50.9 -52.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 71 72 71 64 64 58 60 60 44 32 24 15 17 MO FLX (M/S/D) 19 9 11 25 18 11 13 0 12 15 -7 -12 -14 850 MB VORT 51 59 76 70 57 106 121 182 182 164 83 16 -73 LAND (KM) 48 3 -36 -79 -94 -167 -278 -306 -332 -190 -110 -154 -212 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 28.1 28.8 29.5 30.2 31.5 32.6 34.3 36.5 38.9 40.7 42.0 42.5 LONG(DEG W) 79.7 80.5 81.3 82.0 82.7 83.6 84.1 83.0 80.3 77.6 75.3 74.1 74.3 HEAT CONTENT 49 48 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 335/ 14 CX,CY: -5/ 13 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 541 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 41 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 11. 13. 15. 14. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 19. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 27. 30. 31. 31. 26. 17. 4. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 25. 28. 30. 29. 24. 16. 3. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TAMMY 10/05/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.46 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.68 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 113.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.79 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.73 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.17 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 4.04 Prob of RI= 12.2% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)