* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/05/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 48 53 58 61 63 62 56 45 V (KT) LAND 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 30 30 SHEAR (KTS) 26 17 17 22 18 16 25 37 44 47 44 42 38 SHEAR DIR 269 254 237 248 263 232 242 217 223 217 222 216 228 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.1 26.0 25.0 22.9 21.6 20.0 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 149 148 142 131 119 110 96 90 84 81 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -51.3 -50.8 -50.8 -51.2 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 72 72 69 64 62 59 60 58 49 43 37 26 19 MO FLX (M/S/D) 16 9 11 15 12 8 11 0 -7 19 12 17 11 850 MB VORT 51 63 75 68 54 93 104 182 190 191 131 94 55 LAND (KM) 20 -27 -76 -66 -58 -112 -223 -278 -280 -211 -113 -110 -188 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.6 28.3 29.0 29.7 31.0 32.1 33.7 35.9 38.4 40.3 41.6 42.3 LONG(DEG W) 79.9 80.7 81.4 82.1 82.7 83.7 84.1 83.2 80.5 77.8 75.4 74.1 74.2 HEAT CONTENT 49 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 589 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 50 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. 17. 16. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -26. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 22. 21. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 25. 30. 33. 35. 33. 27. 17. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 32. 26. 15. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/05/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.56 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 119.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.76 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.10 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 4.00 Prob of RI= 11.7% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)