* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TAMMY 10/05/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 49 56 60 62 60 56 49 38 29 V (KT) LAND 35 38 34 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 28 SHEAR (KTS) 19 22 29 24 18 25 36 51 42 44 39 42 N/A SHEAR DIR 263 232 243 263 265 236 226 220 224 235 241 249 9999 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.1 26.3 25.6 24.8 24.2 23.6 23.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 145 142 139 131 122 115 109 104 100 98 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.1 -51.9 -50.8 -50.9 -51.4 -52.3 -51.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 500-300 MB RH 72 67 65 66 61 61 62 40 21 15 14 14 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 9 11 23 21 21 6 17 -14 7 -11 -4 -3 N/A 850 MB VORT 56 70 56 42 59 109 165 137 97 29 0 -57 N/A LAND (KM) 39 19 -17 -62 -118 -240 -333 -413 -454 -471 -450 -324 N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.2 30.1 30.7 31.3 32.2 33.1 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.1 38.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.2 80.9 81.5 82.1 82.7 83.7 84.5 84.8 84.4 83.4 81.7 79.3 N/A HEAT CONTENT 49 44 29 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 335/ 12 CX,CY: -4/ 11 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 507 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 87 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 10. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 13. 12. 10. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 23. 27. 29. 27. 23. 15. 4. -4. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 25. 27. 25. 21. 14. 3. -6. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TAMMY 10/05/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.50 SST (C) : Value: 28.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.64 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 110.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.76 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.72 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.39 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 34.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.11 Scaled RI index= 4.00 Prob of RI= 11.7% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)