* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/05/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 29 34 38 48 56 63 65 67 66 63 60 V (KT) LAND 20 24 29 34 38 48 56 45 47 49 47 45 42 SHEAR (KTS) 20 13 14 16 16 4 2 15 18 19 13 22 24 SHEAR DIR 332 326 290 315 337 244 269 210 216 229 260 262 280 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.6 28.3 28.5 28.1 26.9 26.4 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 162 159 151 146 149 143 128 123 121 121 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 12 11 10 10 8 5 0 0 0 1 2 500-300 MB RH 72 67 67 66 63 63 57 57 51 44 40 31 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) 14 3 17 14 9 8 5 2 -2 -3 1 -4 7 850 MB VORT 89 108 130 111 102 128 100 118 92 62 81 91 98 LAND (KM) 37 41 72 95 98 187 68 15 229 269 476 672 755 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.7 21.3 22.0 22.7 24.4 26.7 29.2 31.6 33.6 34.6 35.1 35.0 LONG(DEG W) 87.0 86.6 86.2 85.7 85.2 84.1 83.1 80.9 77.7 73.9 70.8 68.5 67.6 HEAT CONTENT 99 98 95 89 85 52 16 43 27 10 4 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 583 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 63 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 15 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 6. 11. 14. 16. 18. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 31. 39. 44. 47. 46. 45. 42. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 19. 28. 36. 43. 45. 47. 46. 43. 40. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/05/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.67 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 142.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.77 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.82 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.69 Scaled RI index= 5.48 Prob of RI= 52.9% is 4.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)