* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/05/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 35 41 47 52 54 54 53 50 43 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 35 41 33 30 33 33 32 29 25 SHEAR (KTS) 23 22 18 17 18 17 12 3 5 3 4 18 29 SHEAR DIR 72 80 83 93 99 101 107 122 26 310 275 234 244 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.8 31.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.8 -51.9 -50.9 -52.3 -51.2 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 8 10 7 9 6 8 4 6 3 500-300 MB RH 78 76 77 75 69 66 66 63 55 44 43 37 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 7 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 4 11 5 2 850 MB VORT 106 86 87 84 69 64 26 20 18 28 34 79 61 LAND (KM) 29 26 22 15 16 11 -27 -19 21 181 114 86 -181 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.9 18.4 19.2 20.2 21.3 22.5 24.2 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 99.6 100.1 100.6 101.0 101.4 102.1 103.0 104.3 105.8 107.3 108.7 109.1 107.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 587 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 127 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 19. 27. 34. 37. 39. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 28. 31. 32. 31. 28. 22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 21. 27. 32. 34. 34. 33. 30. 23. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/05/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.88 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 144.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.78 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.51 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.15 Scaled RI index= 3.95 Prob of RI= 26.7% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)