* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TAMMY 10/05/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 56 60 65 68 67 65 59 52 46 38 V (KT) LAND 45 40 35 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 SHEAR (KTS) 28 27 22 18 17 25 35 38 41 37 35 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 246 258 254 231 230 211 218 222 231 228 9999 9999 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.6 25.8 25.0 24.4 23.7 23.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 142 138 133 125 117 110 106 101 99 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.6 -52.3 -51.7 -50.9 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 67 69 69 66 66 60 57 32 19 17 19 N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 25 19 6 10 4 28 7 2 30 22 11 N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 70 65 44 69 89 113 189 150 109 70 75 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 23 -15 -58 -128 -209 -300 -373 -470 -484 -474 -412 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.2 30.9 31.5 32.0 32.8 33.7 34.7 35.6 36.8 37.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.9 81.5 82.1 82.8 83.4 84.5 85.1 84.9 84.2 82.6 80.5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 28 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 335/ 12 CX,CY: -4/ 11 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 524 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 89 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 9. 10. 7. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. -25. -28. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 16. 17. 19. 19. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 22. 25. 24. 21. 16. 9. 2. -6. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 11. 15. 20. 23. 22. 20. 14. 7. 1. -7. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TAMMY 10/05/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.50 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.59 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 96.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.63 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.74 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.53 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.26 Scaled RI index= 4.15 Prob of RI= 13.6% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)