* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/05/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 33 38 46 54 60 62 63 62 58 52 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 33 38 46 44 45 48 49 48 43 38 SHEAR (KTS) 20 15 15 12 4 3 5 11 16 22 28 34 41 SHEAR DIR 319 298 308 325 312 259 190 230 233 236 224 234 231 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.3 28.5 28.3 27.1 25.5 24.4 22.2 18.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 162 159 154 146 149 146 131 114 106 93 79 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.6 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 10 9 7 2 2 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 67 68 66 65 61 57 56 50 52 39 40 37 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 18 19 12 5 1 9 4 0 -1 -2 -8 13 14 850 MB VORT 109 128 115 103 110 104 105 76 71 49 72 35 33 LAND (KM) 29 67 108 114 151 185 -33 157 107 175 295 219 153 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.4 22.1 23.0 23.8 25.8 28.4 31.0 33.8 36.1 38.2 39.8 41.4 LONG(DEG W) 86.7 86.3 85.8 85.3 84.7 83.8 82.3 79.7 76.6 73.9 71.4 69.7 68.6 HEAT CONTENT 96 94 89 87 70 29 9999 32 11 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 35/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 611 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 42 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 21. 21. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 30. 37. 41. 43. 43. 40. 34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 18. 26. 34. 40. 42. 43. 42. 38. 32. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/05/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.80 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.81 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.65 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.66 Scaled RI index= 5.37 Prob of RI= 49.0% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)