* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/05/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 37 42 45 49 53 58 61 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 37 42 45 49 53 58 61 SHEAR (KTS) 15 14 16 18 16 15 8 11 8 10 8 13 12 SHEAR DIR 285 275 259 261 262 270 270 262 225 232 268 277 294 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 160 160 164 162 155 151 152 151 148 149 149 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -53.5 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -55.1 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 10 10 9 9 500-300 MB RH 53 54 57 57 58 63 64 64 57 61 60 59 59 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 1 1 2 4 1 0 0 0 1 1 6 7 850 MB VORT -14 -19 -26 -33 -43 -64 -51 -55 -49 -48 -63 -62 -45 LAND (KM) 1296 1304 1270 1174 1075 993 1011 1124 1258 1351 1444 1411 1344 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.8 9.1 9.6 10.1 11.5 13.2 15.1 17.1 19.1 20.4 20.9 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 37.5 39.1 40.6 42.1 43.6 46.3 48.5 50.2 51.3 51.8 51.9 52.5 53.2 HEAT CONTENT 43 45 44 46 52 67 57 68 83 60 47 44 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 658 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 23 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 17. 21. 25. 29. 34. 38. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 17. 20. 24. 28. 33. 36. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/05/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.66 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.80 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.80 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.29 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.31 Scaled RI index= 4.55 Prob of RI= 20.6% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)