* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/05/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 42 49 55 59 59 57 54 51 45 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 42 49 55 59 59 57 54 51 37 SHEAR (KTS) 21 21 22 20 18 13 6 0 5 9 11 23 28 SHEAR DIR 77 77 89 93 99 106 88 176 345 263 255 236 232 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.7 31.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 9 7 8 6 7 7 6 7 7 500-300 MB RH 79 78 77 70 67 65 56 56 44 39 35 35 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 -1 4 -2 -1 0 850 MB VORT 99 87 81 70 72 59 24 30 19 23 18 67 46 LAND (KM) 63 65 73 74 55 13 14 46 139 237 151 97 -111 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.5 18.2 19.0 19.8 20.7 21.5 22.3 23.2 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 100.6 101.1 101.6 102.1 102.5 103.4 104.6 105.8 107.0 107.9 108.4 107.7 106.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 498 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 138 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 19. 26. 32. 35. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 20. 27. 31. 33. 31. 28. 25. 19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 13. 17. 24. 30. 34. 34. 32. 29. 26. 20. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/05/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.88 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 139.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.66 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.68 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.13 Scaled RI index= 4.13 Prob of RI= 30.0% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)