* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * TAMMY 10/06/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 60 65 67 66 63 58 54 48 41 V (KT) LAND 45 38 33 30 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 33 26 18 21 24 29 40 35 40 33 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 263 249 236 236 215 208 214 221 220 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.4 25.7 25.1 24.5 24.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 135 133 131 123 116 111 106 104 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.0 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 69 66 65 63 63 59 50 25 19 22 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 18 19 5 0 4 24 24 6 5 0 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 56 38 65 88 107 168 193 175 112 131 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -20 -76 -161 -217 -234 -307 -404 -413 -396 -363 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.1 31.7 32.0 32.2 33.0 33.9 34.7 35.7 36.7 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.6 82.3 83.0 83.6 84.1 84.9 84.7 84.1 82.6 80.6 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 576 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 77 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 9. 8. 6. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -25. -29. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 23. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 20. 22. 21. 18. 13. 9. 3. -4. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 15. 20. 22. 21. 18. 13. 9. 3. -4. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TAMMY 10/06/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.45 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.54 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 91.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.59 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.73 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.48 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.23 Scaled RI index= 3.92 Prob of RI= 10.8% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)