* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/06/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 30 34 40 45 47 50 53 56 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 30 34 40 45 47 50 53 56 55 SHEAR (KTS) 14 17 17 14 17 10 9 8 11 9 15 22 26 SHEAR DIR 256 247 269 263 263 265 220 220 231 259 272 288 305 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 162 162 157 152 151 148 143 143 145 146 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.6 -54.6 -55.3 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 9 9 9 10 500-300 MB RH 49 51 55 56 58 63 66 60 59 58 57 54 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 0 3 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 5 -2 850 MB VORT -12 -21 -28 -43 -57 -76 -62 -57 -62 -73 -70 -63 -61 LAND (KM) 1306 1278 1168 1104 1060 1051 1146 1323 1485 1595 1640 1579 1489 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.4 9.8 10.5 11.1 12.7 14.6 16.8 18.9 20.5 21.1 21.0 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 39.4 40.9 42.3 43.6 44.8 47.0 48.6 49.6 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.7 51.5 HEAT CONTENT 45 41 45 47 56 55 50 65 55 41 36 39 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 661 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 47 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 23. 26. 29. 32. 32. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 15. 20. 22. 25. 28. 31. 30. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/06/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.67 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.75 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.33 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 4.58 Prob of RI= 21.4% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)