* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT MISSING * INVEST 10/06/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 39 46 52 56 58 55 53 49 43 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 38 45 51 55 56 54 52 48 33 SHEAR (KTS) 16 19 20 17 12 3 4 4 6 9 13 20 26 SHEAR DIR 78 85 96 105 111 99 107 47 298 297 241 233 232 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.5 31.3 31.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.7 -52.2 -51.6 -51.0 -51.9 -51.2 -52.0 -51.5 -52.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 9 8 6 8 5 8 5 6 5 6 500-300 MB RH 72 72 64 61 63 55 53 49 41 41 40 34 29 MO FLX (M/S/D) -8 -2 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 4 4 6 -2 850 MB VORT 95 82 63 59 53 30 31 34 24 17 59 64 62 LAND (KM) 0 0 7 17 9 45 94 157 252 159 91 0 -194 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.4 20.0 20.6 21.3 22.2 23.3 24.8 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.2 103.6 104.1 104.5 105.5 106.5 107.2 108.0 108.4 108.5 108.0 107.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 360 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 104 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 19. 26. 32. 35. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 30. 28. 24. 18. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 11. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 30. 28. 24. 18. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/06/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.04 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.92 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.42 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)