* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * TAMMY 10/06/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 36 37 41 41 39 35 34 33 30 23 V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 28 28 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 SHEAR (KTS) 27 19 23 29 32 43 44 43 38 37 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 250 225 230 238 217 219 226 238 240 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 27.8 27.3 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.1 24.4 23.8 23.2 22.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 133 127 123 119 111 106 102 98 95 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.2 -50.9 -51.3 -51.3 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 63 65 62 62 61 51 30 15 13 13 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 24 13 13 12 20 16 -6 0 8 7 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 45 67 82 101 126 180 118 71 44 65 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -128 -209 -267 -293 -325 -431 -544 -623 -583 -495 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.3 31.9 32.5 33.0 33.4 34.4 35.4 36.3 37.3 38.4 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.8 83.7 84.5 85.2 85.8 86.6 86.3 85.5 83.7 81.3 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 646 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 54 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 14. 15. 17. 16. 12. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -6. -4. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. -30. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 2. 6. 6. 4. 0. -1. -2. -5. -12. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. 1. 2. 6. 6. 4. 0. -1. -2. -5. -12. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TAMMY 10/06/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 26.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.41 SST (C) : Value: 26.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.42 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 93.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.61 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.67 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.42 Scaled RI index= 2.88 Prob of RI= 3.3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)