* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/06/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 32 39 47 53 56 58 55 51 42 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 32 39 36 43 45 47 45 40 30 SHEAR (KTS) 11 5 5 7 3 8 14 23 25 23 30 26 26 SHEAR DIR 297 343 182 210 269 177 215 226 249 242 260 259 258 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.4 26.2 25.4 23.8 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 157 152 149 146 146 145 134 121 114 102 94 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 6 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 67 64 57 55 54 54 46 41 33 26 21 27 33 MO FLX (M/S/D) 11 4 1 1 2 0 0 -1 4 13 2 18 10 850 MB VORT 125 115 121 135 122 139 99 103 63 79 40 55 35 LAND (KM) 103 120 143 207 287 135 -79 134 106 46 71 49 -5 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.6 23.3 24.2 25.1 27.2 29.5 31.7 33.4 34.9 36.0 37.6 39.0 LONG(DEG W) 86.0 85.7 85.3 85.1 84.8 84.0 82.0 79.3 77.1 75.8 75.1 75.0 75.3 HEAT CONTENT 94 82 83 59 33 21 9999 16 16 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 25/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 622 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 11 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 21. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 28. 35. 37. 40. 36. 31. 24. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 12. 19. 27. 33. 36. 38. 35. 31. 22. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/06/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.91 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.76 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 136.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.80 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.70 Scaled RI index= 4.88 Prob of RI= 32.6% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)