* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/06/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 37 43 48 50 51 53 55 57 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 37 43 48 50 51 53 55 57 SHEAR (KTS) 12 14 10 10 12 6 11 9 13 16 20 16 17 SHEAR DIR 241 257 253 249 249 241 232 228 233 254 247 272 290 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 164 164 164 157 152 152 151 151 149 151 151 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 500-300 MB RH 52 56 56 56 59 63 63 54 52 48 50 55 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 2 4 3 3 2 0 0 2 4 6 4 0 850 MB VORT -9 -17 -30 -44 -60 -62 -63 -61 -58 -79 -73 -50 -47 LAND (KM) 1227 1118 1025 980 947 967 1075 1227 1330 1377 1381 1360 1327 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.7 10.1 10.7 11.2 12.7 14.4 16.2 17.7 18.8 19.4 19.8 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 41.3 42.8 44.2 45.4 46.6 48.4 49.7 50.5 50.9 51.2 51.7 52.4 53.1 HEAT CONTENT 45 48 60 65 72 57 60 73 75 61 55 52 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 689 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 55 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 17. 23. 25. 26. 29. 32. 34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 18. 23. 25. 26. 28. 30. 32. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/06/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.78 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.83 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 137.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.66 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.55 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 33.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.13 Scaled RI index= 4.65 Prob of RI= 23.2% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)